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We're still betting on the underdogs
03/04/2022
Provided by Riot Games Korea Liiv Sandbox are a sneaky underdog pick that really have more value than the betting line suggests.
Every week, I will give you my top five predictions going into a wild weekend of esports action across the world. From League of Legends to sometimes even Rocket League, I will put my money where my mouth is to showcase my brilliance (or ineptitude) by trying to find some of the best upset specials on tap.
With a full slate of games starting Friday, here are my five predictions for the coming weekend.
Last week’s record: 4-1 (3-0 on underdogs)
Overall record: 8-2, +$1,155 (if $100 bet on every game)
All odds for matches taken from bet365.
I wanted to keep my streak of getting an easy win going by throwing an easy wager on T1, but even I couldn’t justify it this week. They’re such favorites over archrival KT Rolster that you’d only take home a whopping $8 if you threw $100 on them. Those odds are just too ridiculous to even care about at the moment with how good T1 are en route to a possible perfect season.
So looking elsewhere for a nice underdog, I’m picking up Sandbox. Aside from T1 in a tier by themselves and then Gen.G and Damwon KIA below them, I don’t love any other team. DRX are good but not infallible, and especially at these odds, you’d expect from a more significant David vs. Goliath matchup. While the bottom lane should be a sizeable gap in DRX’s favor, I’m hoping we can see Lee “Clozer” Ju-hyeon have a breakout series.
Pick: Liiv Sandbox
I’m heading over to China for a quick pick, and I like what I’ve been seeing from RNG recently. Chen “Bin” Ze-Bin has started showing the form that got him to a world final in 2020. EDG still has that world champion shine on them, and though this is a pick’em, RNG are coming off a nice win against Bin’s former team from that world final, Weibo Gaming.
While RNG might not be my pick to make it out of China to qualify for the Mid-Season Invitational in South Korea, I like their odds here.
My pick: RNG
I am not going for the underdog here. Even as the favorite, I think you’re getting some good odds on Evil Geniuses. The hype around the team has died down with a 4-5 record after the first half of the regular season, but they are better than their record indicates. And at their current spot, they can’t be careless with any of their remaining games, so I’m foreseeing them having a nice comeback here against Immortals.
My pick: Evil Geniuses
I probably should refrain from taking Excel with the playoffs on the line, but I’m doing it. Fnatic’s dropped some wonky games this split, and Excel are 5-2 in their last seven, including a win over the very same orange and black adversary. I know this will bite me in the ass, and I should have gone with BDS over a limping MAD Lions squad, but my instincts (which had been spot on the first two weeks) are telling me to go with XL.
My pick: Excel
I was really hoping that the oddsmakers would give me NRG as the underdog. Their 0-3 record doesn’t indicate how good they are as a team and very well could be 2-1 if some small things went the other way. Oh well. Still, even as a favorite, I’m riding NRG here to turn their fortunes around against a formidable Knights team.
NRG took a convincing 2-0 over the Knights in the qualifier for Challengers. Also, Ascent, the map the Knights have made their name on with 22 victories out of their last 23 appearances, shouldn’t be seen in this series, as NRG has avoided it in all three of their group matches so far. Don’t let me down now, NRG
My pick: NRG
Tyler Erzberger is entering a decade of covering esports. When not traveling around the world telling stories about people shouting over video games, he’s probably arguing with an anime avatar on Twitter about North American esports.
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